We believe Boot Barn is pursuing a non-sensical large store physical retail expansion strategy in a niche market with a brand identity problem and is losing competitiveness to western competitors and broadline retailers with stronger omnichannel marketing and ecommerce. We believe recent short-term hype around western wear from Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter album is masking otherwise poor performance. Based on our investigation, we estimate a 40% to 50% downside risk, or approximately $51.40 – $61.70 per share.
Boot Barn Holdings Inc.
- Consumer Discretionary
- NYSE: BOOT2024
Research Overview
We believe Boot Barn is pursuing a non-sensical large store physical retail expansion strategy in a niche market with a brand identity problem and is losing competitiveness to western competitors and broadline retailers with stronger omnichannel marketing and ecommerce. We believe recent short-term hype around western wear from Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter album is masking otherwise poor performance. Based on our investigation, we estimate a 40% to 50% downside risk, or approximately $51.40 – $61.70 per share.
The report highlights several key concerns with the Company, including:
- CEO and Director James Conroy has modified his education degree claim and omits an important role from his biography
- Boot Barn’s aggressive physical store expansion is an outlier among industry peers as it appears to be obfuscating the facts amidst increased competitive pressures and given ~50% of Boot Barn’s products are sourced from China we believe there is significant brand reputation risk
- In addition to its misguided storefront expansion strategy, Boot Barn is also failing to successfully position itself in both digital and physical markets
- We have also identified multiple areas where Boot Barn either lacks a competitive edge or the ability to attract customers in an increasingly promotional omnichannel selling environment
- Spruce Point also has several concerns with Boot Barn’s new store economics, pictorial representations of stores and anomalous capital spending
- We believe the effects of Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and the Yellowstone TV series on sales represent missed promotional opportunities for Boot Barn, emphasizing the Company’s further lack of understanding of its own target and current trends market
- Spruce Point is equally concerned by the leadership chosen to support and oversee CEO Conroy. Multiple executives and Board members are associated with instances of financial restatements and scandals
